WHEN DOES PUTIN BECOME PUTZ-IN?
The Russo-Ukraine War of 2022, Week 2: Round 1, the blitz, went to Ukraine, which stymied Putin’s grab. Round 2, crippling international sanctions crashed the Ruble and isolated Russia’s economy, combined with more Russ force being brought to bear against Ukraine–including artillery & missile attacks on cities, appears to being resolving in Ukraine favor. Lighting war is bogged down. A blitzkrieg’s become a blintz-kreig.
Why? Clue 1: where the hell is the Russian air force? Without air supremacy, the Blitz becaomes a Blintz.
A halted 40 mile column of armor is just a traffic jam. One good take on it is here: Is the Russian Air Force Actually Incapable of Complex Air Operations? | Royal United Services Institute (rusi.org)
Rules of thumb:
If they coulda, they woulda.
If they haven’t done it, it’s because they can’t.
So why not? Why can’t the mighty Russian Army go crush the plucky little Ukes? Logistics, buckaroos.
Putin’s Blitz is literally out of gas.
So where we’re at now: Can Putin regroup, bring up more force, and crush Ukraine before the world sanctions unravel Russia? His counter move has been to shoot missiles onto cities–a typical Russian brute force approach. But this Round 2 seems to be going to Ukraine, as Russia remains bogged down and everyone is piling on Putin. What’s next? Will Russia reinforce it’s army? Can it? How strong is Putin’s grip on power?
My take remains the same at the moment: Ukraine must run the clock on Putin, holding out until the world sanctions induce Russia to abandon this madcap gamble. Then, Putin becomes Putz-in. Who knows how long he lasts.
RANDOM FACTOR: all sorts of amateur General Rippers want the US, or NATO, or somebody to get militarily involved. Latest chest-thump is declaring the Ukraine a no-fly zone. Okay—-so we jump into a shooting air war, right next to the border of a very nervous and touchy nuclear power? With Russia?
Thanks, but no thanks!